TikTok’s future in the US has been a rollercoaster ride of potential bans, forced sales, and legal challenges. While the dust seems to have settled for now, the question of its ownership remains a hot topic. Who could buy TikTok, and more importantly, who will?

The political landscape

The primary concern surrounding TikTok stems from ByteDance’s Chinese ownership. National security concerns, particularly regarding data privacy and potential influence operations, have fuelled calls for divestiture. This has created a unique situation where a highly successful, globally recognised app is potentially on the market, but with a complex political backdrop.

Tech giants and beyond

Several names have been thrown around as potential buyers, ranging from tech giants to private equity firms. Initially, companies like Microsoft and Oracle were rumoured to be interested. These established players could offer the financial muscle and technological infrastructure to manage an app of TikTok’s scale. However, these deals never materialised, likely due to the political complexities and the sheer size of the acquisition.

Consortiums and private equity

Another possibility is a consortium of investors. This would spread the financial burden and potentially alleviate some of the political concerns by diluting any single entity’s control. However, coordinating such a large group and reaching a consensus on strategy could prove challenging. Private equity firms are always in the mix for large acquisitions, and they could see TikTok as a valuable asset with significant growth potential, particularly if they could successfully navigate the regulatory hurdles. However, their focus on maximising returns might clash with the political sensitivities surrounding the app.

International players

One intriguing, though perhaps less likely, scenario is a purchase by a non-US company.  This could appease some of the national security concerns, but it would still raise questions about data access and influence. A European or Canadian company, for example, might be seen as a less threatening alternative to a Chinese company.

The Chinese government’s role

The biggest hurdle to any sale is undoubtedly the Chinese government. China has implemented export controls on certain technologies, including those used by TikTok. This means that ByteDance would likely need Beijing’s approval for any sale, giving the Chinese government significant leverage over the process. They might resist a sale to a US company, for example, or impose conditions that make the deal less attractive.

Ultimately, predicting who will buy TikTok is a complex puzzle. The buyer will need deep pockets, technological expertise, and the ability to navigate a complex political landscape.  They will also need to convince regulators in both the US and China that the deal is in their respective national interests. Until these factors align, TikTok’s ownership will remain a topic of speculation and debate. The future of this popular app hangs in the balance, a testament to the intersection of technology, politics, and global power.